Çok Kutuplu Dünya Düzeninde Orta Güçlerin Stratejik Konumlanması: Suudi Arabistan Örneği
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DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17347368Anahtar Kelimeler:
Çok kutupluluk, Orta güçler, Stratejik hedging, Suudi Arabistan, Dış politikaÖzet
Bu çalışma, Suudi Arabistan’ın dış politikasını stratejik hedging kuramsal çerçevesi üzerinden sistematik bir şekilde incelemektedir. Stratejik hedging, uluslararası ilişkiler literatüründe, orta ölçekli güçlerin büyük güç rekabetlerinin yoğunlaştığı ve uluslararası sistemin dönüşüm geçirdiği dönemlerde belirsizlikleri yönetmek, riskleri asgariye indirmek ve stratejik özerkliklerini azami düzeye çıkarmak amacıyla başvurdukları çok katmanlı bir dış politika yaklaşımı olarak kavramsallaştırılmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, Suudi dış politikasını yalnızca ikili ilişkiler bağlamında değil, aynı zamanda çok kutupluluğa yönelen uluslararası düzenin genel dinamikleri ışığında konumlandırmak, Riyad’ın son dönemde geliştirdiği yönelimlerin anlaşılabilmesi açısından elzemdir. Araştırma, özellikle Suudi Arabistan’ın hem tarihsel ve kurumsal bağlarla şekillenmiş geleneksel güvenlik ortağı olan Amerika Birleşik Devletleri (ABD) ile ilişkilerini hem de yükselen küresel aktörler konumundaki Çin ve Rusya ile geliştirdiği stratejik angajmanları analiz etmektedir. Bu bağlamda çalışmanın temel argümanı, ABD’nin küresel güvenlik mimarisindeki görece geri çekilme eğilimleri ve Amerikan tek kutupluluğunun aşamalı erozyonu, Suudi Arabistan açısından geleneksel güvenlik garantilerinin sürdürülebilirliğini sorgulanır hale getirdiği be bu durumun Riyad’ı hem güvenlik hem de ekonomik alanlarda tek taraflı bağımlılığın risklerini azaltmak üzere yeni stratejik ortaklıklar geliştirmeye yönelttiğidir.
Bu çerçevede, çalışma “Uluslararası sistemin tek kutupluluktan çok kutupluluğa doğru evrimi ile birlikte iç ekonomik zorunlulukların etkisi, Suudi Arabistan’ı nasıl bir riskten korunma politikasına yönelttiği ve ülkeyi bir orta ölçekli güç olarak yeniden konumlandırmaya sevk etti?” temel araştırma sorusunu cevaplamaya çalışmaktadır. Çalışmanın bulguları, ekonomik çeşitlendirme ve yapısal dönüşüm hedefleri ile küresel güç dağılımındaki kaymaların birbirini tamamlayıcı biçimde Riyad’ı hem Çin hem de Rusya ile daha kurumsallaşmış ve çok boyutlu ilişkiler geliştirmeye zorladığını ortaya koymaktadır. Dolayısıyla Suudi Arabistan’ın dış politikasında gözlemlenen stratejik hedging yaklaşımı, literatürde angajman ile yumuşak dengeleme (soft-balancing) unsurlarının bileşimi olarak tanımlanan ve bir yandan bağımlılık ilişkilerini azaltırken diğer yandan doğrudan çatışmadan kaçınmayı amaçlayan yaklaşımıyla örtüşmektedir. Bu strateji sayesinde Riyad, hem rejim güvenliğini teminat altına almakta, hem stratejik özerklik kapasitesini artırmakta, hem de bölgesel düzeyde nüfuzunu pekiştirerek değişen küresel düzen içerisinde daha esnek ve manevra kabiliyeti yüksek bir konum elde etmektedir.
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